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U.S. Mortgage Demand Rose From Two-Year Low on Falling Rates

By Bob Willis - Feb 23, 2011 4:00 AM PT

The number of applications for U.S. mortgages rose last week, led by more refinancing as mortgage rates fell to the lowest level since the end of January.

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of loan applications increased 13 percent in the week ended Feb. 18 after dropping the prior week to the lowest point since November 2008. The group’s refinancing measure jumped 18 percent and the purchase gauge rose 5.1 percent.

“Refinancing is more sensitive to fluctuations in rates” than are purchases, Paul Dales, a senior economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in Toronto, said before the report. Still, he said he expected refinancing to “remain soft” with sales at “historically depressed levels for perhaps two or three years.”

The average rate on 30-year fixed mortgages dropped to 5 percent as turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa led investors to seek the safety of U.S. Treasury securities, which are benchmarks for some consumer loans, pulling down their yield. Still, mounting foreclosures, falling prices and 9 percent unemployment mean it will take time for demand to pick up.

The 30-year rate fell from 5.12 percent the prior week. It reached 4.21 percent in October, the lowest since the group’s records began in 1990.

At the current 30-year rate, monthly payments for each $100,000 of a loan would be $536.82, in line with the same week the prior year, when the rate was 5.04 percent.

Rates Fall

The average rate on a 15-year fixed mortgage fell to 4.28 percent from 4.34 percent.

The share of applicants seeking to refinance a loan rose to 65.7 percent from 64 percent the prior week.

The housing market is struggling to gain traction after a homebuyers’ tax credit expired last year and as more properties fall into the foreclosure pipeline. Combined sales of existing and new homes in December were at a 5.61 million annual unit pace, down from a July 2005 record of 8.53 million.

A report from the National Association of Realtors today may show existing home sales fell 1.1 percent to a 5.22 million annualized rate in January, according to economists’ estimates. Sales of previously owned homes last year totaled 4.91 million, the lowest level since 1997.

Builder Losses

Homebuilders are still posting losses. D.R. Horton Inc., the second-largest U.S. homebuilder by stock-market value, on Jan. 27 reported a fiscal first-quarter loss that was wider than analysts projected.

“I think 2011 will be a marginal, weak year in the homebuilding industry,” D.R. Horton Chief Executive Officer Donald Tomnitz said during a conference call the same day. “Given the weak macroeconomic conditions, high levels of existing homes for sale and tight mortgage availability, we remain cautious and realistic in our expectations.”

The Washington-based Mortgage Bankers Association’s loan survey, compiled every week, covers about half of all U.S. retail residential mortgage originations.

To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz at cwellisz@bloomberg.net

Original article published at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-23/u-s-mortgage-demand-rose-from-two-year-low-on-falling-rates.html

 

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Home prices near 2009 lows — and may fall more

By Les Christie, staff writerFebruary 22, 2011: 2:02 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Home prices took a big hit at the end of 2010, even as the rest of the economy gained steam.

National home prices fell 4.1% during the last three months of 2010, compared with 12 months earlier, according to the latest report from the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, a closely watched indicator of market trends. They were down 1.9% compared with three months earlier.

“Despite improvements in the overall economy, housing continues to drift lower and weaker,” said David Blitzer, spokesman for S&P.

And things may get a lot worse, said Robert Shiller, a Yale economist and half of the Case-Shiller team, in a web conference after the report’s release.

“There’s a substantial risk of home prices falling another 15%, 20% or 25% more,” he said.

Shiller cited a few reasons for his bearish stance. The government is expected to reduce the presence of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the housing market. These agencies currently provide loan guarantees for about two-thirds of mortgages. If they fade away, private mortgage money will have to fill the gap and the cost of mortgage borrowing will surely rise. That will hurt home prices.

There’s also talk of possibly ending the mortgage interest tax deduction for many homeowners. Meanwhile, the weak economic recovery may be threatened by higher oil prices as a result of turmoil in the Mideast.

At the web conference, Shiller’s index partner Karl Case wasn’t much more optimistic.

“I see [the market] bouncing along the bottom with a slight negative trend,” said Case, an economics professor emeritus at Wellesley College.

A widespread drop

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the national index surpassed the low it hit in the first quarter of 2009.

The decline was widespread, with 18 of the 20 large cities covered by a separate S&P/Case-Shiller index recording losses for the year. The only gains were posted by Washington, which was up 4.1%, and San Diego, which saw prices climb 1.7%.

The biggest loser for the year was Detroit, where prices dropped 9.1%.

“We’re really close to being at the bottom again,” said S&P’s Maureen Maitland. “Last year’s gains came courtesy of the tax incentives and the market is not holding up on its own.”

The impact of homebuyer tax credits ended back last spring, and the two quarters of data since then reflect that. Prices fell steeply during the third quarter, down 3.3%. When the credit was in effect, prices rose consistently, up four out of five quarters starting in the second quarter of 2009.

S&P reported that both the company’s 10- and 20-city indexes also fell month over month. In three cities, Detroit, Cleveland and Las Vegas, home prices have dropped below their January 2000 levels — yes, you’d have to go back to the past millennium to find lower prices there.

Eleven markets, including New York and Chicago, have reached their lowest levels since home prices peaked in 2006 and 2007.

The losses were not unexpected, according to Brad Hunter, chief economist for Metrostudy, a housing market research firm.

“It’s clear now that, going back to last fall, the apparent strength was a false strength,” he said. “Now that the tax credits are gone, we’re back to where the training wheels are off, to normal consumer demand.”

He expects home prices to decline gradually throughout 2011, with markets picking up only when hiring increases substantially.

Original article at http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/22/real_estate/december_home_prices/

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Mortgage Workout Programs for Homeowners

On Wednesday, February 18, 2009, President Obama announced his new Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan to help troubled homeowners avoid foreclosure. This plan will offer assistance up to 9 million homeowners and applies only to primary residences.  The first component of the plan allows homeowners who are current to refinance an existing Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac conforming loan with a loan-to-value ratio up to 105 percent.  The second component addresses homeowners who are at risk of foreclosure on their mortgages, but they do not have to be delinquent.  The government will work with the lenders to ensure that monthly mortgages do not exceed 31 percent debt-to-income ratio.  Furthermore, the government will seek to create clear and consistent guidelines for loan modifications. Continue reading “Mortgage Workout Programs for Homeowners”